The strategies.
Built from live markets.

The core concept

Bitcoin operates on an approximate 4-year cycle driven by the halving event — when the block reward is cut in half. Every halving has historically been followed by a significant bull run within 12-18 months. The strategy is simple in concept but requires patience and discipline to execute: accumulate during the bear, ride the bull, distribute near the peak.

The four phases and what to do in each

• Accumulation (now — 2026/2027): Dollar cost average into BTC and ETH. Ignore the noise. Sentiment is negative — that's the point. This is where the next cycle is won.
• Early Bull (pre-halving narrative): Increase position size. Start adding quality large-cap altcoins. The narrative builds before price moves significantly.
• Markup/Euphoria: Ride the trend. Take partial profits at key levels. Monitor Bitcoin dominance for altcoin rotation signal. Don't exit everything — let winners run.
• Distribution: Reduce exposure aggressively. Move profits to stablecoins. Ignore FOMO. The top is never obvious until after — distribute into strength over time.

Key signals to watch

• Bitcoin dominance — rising means accumulation phase, falling means altseason
• Fear & Greed Index — extreme fear = buy zone, extreme greed = reduce zone
• Long-term holder supply — growing LTH supply confirms accumulation
• Exchange balances — falling exchange BTC = accumulation signal
• Post-halving month count — historically peaks at 12-18 months post-halving

Strategy setup

The core concept

A breakout occurs when price moves decisively above a resistance level or out of a consolidation range. The thesis is that when price has been rejected from the same level multiple times and then breaks through with volume, momentum tends to continue in the breakout direction — at least in the short to medium term.

How to identify a valid breakout

• Price has tested the same resistance level at least 2-3 times
• Each rejection gets shallower — buyers getting stronger
• Volume increases significantly on the breakout candle
• Close above the resistance level — not just a wick
• Retest of the broken level as new support is ideal entry

Entry, stop loss and target

• Entry: On confirmed close above resistance, or on the retest of the broken level as support
• Stop loss: Below the breakout level — if it fails to hold, the trade is invalid
• Target: Measured move — the height of the consolidation range added to the breakout point
• Risk/reward: Minimum 1:2 — never take a breakout trade without this

Common mistakes

• Entering on the candle before it closes — always wait for the close
• Ignoring volume — the most reliable filter for valid vs fake breakouts
• Chasing price after a large breakout candle — wait for the retest
• Not having a defined stop loss before entering

Strategy setup

The core concept

Support is a price level where buying pressure has historically been strong enough to stop price falling further. Resistance is where selling pressure has historically been strong enough to stop price rising further. These levels exist because traders remember them and react to them — creating self-fulfilling price behaviour.

How to identify key levels

• Look for price areas with multiple touches on higher timeframes (daily, weekly)
• Previous all-time highs and major swing lows are the strongest levels
• Round numbers attract liquidity — $80,000, $100,000, $50,000 etc
• High volume nodes on the volume profile — where the most trading occurred
• Role reversal: old resistance becomes new support after a clean breakout

The trade setup

• Long at support: Wait for price to reach the level, look for rejection candles (long lower wicks, bullish engulfing), enter with stop below the level
• Short at resistance: Wait for price to reach the level, look for rejection (long upper wicks, bearish engulfing), enter with stop above the level
• Role reversal entry: After a breakout, wait for price to retest the broken level — strongest entry in the S&R playbook

Strategy setup

The core concept

Markets trend more than they range. When a clear trend is established on a higher timeframe — defined by higher highs and higher lows in a bull trend, or lower highs and lower lows in a bear — the highest probability trades are in the direction of that trend. The strategy is to wait for pullbacks within the trend and enter at lower risk.

Identifying the trend

• Market structure: Uptrend = higher highs and higher lows. Downtrend = lower highs and lower lows
• Moving averages: Price above the 50 and 200 EMA on the daily = bullish bias. Below = bearish bias
• 200-day MA: The single most watched line by institutions. Respect it
• Higher timeframe first: Always establish the weekly trend before trading the daily

The pullback entry

• Wait for a pullback to a key level within the trend — previous resistance turned support, 50 EMA, Fibonacci retracement
• Look for a rejection candle at the pullback level confirming buyers stepping in
• Enter with stop below the pullback low
• Target the previous high or next significant resistance

Strategy setup

The core concept

Large players — institutions, market makers — need liquidity to fill their orders. They can't buy or sell hundreds of millions without moving price against themselves. So they engineer moves to areas where retail stop losses are clustered, triggering those stops to create the liquidity they need, then reversing in the opposite direction. This is called a liquidity hunt or stop hunt.

How to identify a liquidity hunt

• Price spikes above a well-known resistance level with a long upper wick
• The spike happens on a news event or during low liquidity hours
• Price immediately reverses and closes back below the level
• The move happens fast — liquidity hunts are sharp, not gradual
• Volume spikes on the wick candle confirming the stop run

The trade setup

• Wait for the sweep to complete — do not anticipate, wait for the reversal candle
• Enter on the close of the reversal candle back inside the range
• Stop loss above the sweep high (for shorts) or below sweep low (for longs)
• Target the opposite end of the range or the next significant level

Strategy setup

The core concept

Swing trading sits between day trading and long-term investing. You're looking to capture moves that last days to weeks — the natural swings within a larger trend. It requires less screen time than scalping but more active management than cycle investing. The key is identifying where a swing is likely to begin and end using higher timeframe structure.

Identifying swing setups

• Establish the higher timeframe trend — only swing trade with the trend
• Identify key swing highs and lows on the daily chart
• Wait for a pullback to a key level within the trend
• Look for a bullish reversal pattern at the pullback level
• Enter on the 4H confirmation close

Managing the swing trade

• Set your stop loss before entering — below the swing low for longs
• Take partial profits at the first target — 50% at 1:2 R/R
• Trail the stop on the remainder to lock in profit
• Close the remaining position at the next major resistance
• Don't hold through major news events if you can avoid it

Strategy setup

The core concept

Altcoin season occurs when capital rotates out of Bitcoin and into smaller cryptocurrencies, producing explosive percentage gains in a short period. It typically follows a period of Bitcoin dominance rising — meaning BTC has been outperforming altcoins. When dominance peaks and starts falling, altseason begins. The key is identifying the rotation early.

How to position for altseason

• Start with ETH — it's the first major alt to move and signals broader rotation
• Move to large-cap altcoins (SOL, BNB, AVAX) — more liquid, less volatile
• Then mid-caps in strong narrative sectors — AI, DeFi, Layer 2s etc
• Small-caps last and with smallest allocation — highest risk, highest reward
• Never put more than 10% of your portfolio in any single altcoin

Narrative identification

• Narratives drive altcoin pumps — identify the theme before the crowd
• Watch what institutional money is building towards
• Monitor what retail is starting to talk about — you want to be ahead of it
• Exit the narrative when it becomes mainstream media news

Strategy setup

The 2% rule

Never risk more than 2% of your total portfolio on any single trade. This is not a suggestion — it's the rule that keeps you in the game long enough for your edge to play out. At 2% risk per trade, you'd need 50 consecutive losing trades to lose your entire portfolio. That doesn't happen.

Stop loss rules

• Always set your stop loss before entering — never after
• Place it at a level that invalidates your trade thesis — not an arbitrary %
• Never move your stop loss further away to avoid being stopped out
• Moving your stop to break-even when in profit is acceptable
• A stop loss being hit is not a failure — it's the system working

Risk/reward requirements

• Minimum 1:2 risk/reward on every trade — no exceptions
• At 1:2 R/R you only need a 34% win rate to be profitable
• Calculate your target before entering — if 1:2 isn't achievable, don't take the trade
• Take partial profits at 1:2 and trail the remainder for larger moves

Portfolio allocation rules

• Bitcoin: 40-60% — the anchor, lowest risk in crypto
• Ethereum: 15-25% — liquid, established, second safest
• Large-cap altcoins: 10-20% — higher risk, higher reward
• Small-cap/speculative: 5-10% maximum
• Stablecoins/cash: 10-20% — dry powder for opportunities

Framework overview