Updated every week by an active investor with 7+ years in live markets. The single most important question in crypto — answered with data, not hype.
Last updated: 14 July 2026
The Bitcoin Market Cycle
Tap each stage to explore — see where we are, what it means, and what to do
We are here — Accumulation
We are here
Accumulation
Recovery
Euphoria
Bear Market
Stage
Accumulation
Sentiment
Fear & Disbelief
Smart money is
Quietly buying
What to do
DCA weekly into BTC + SOL
Phase 1 — Now
Bear / Accumulation
Still in the bear market. BTC hit $57,950 — a 652-day low in July 2026. Q4 2026 bottom predicted. DCA’ing weekly into BTC and SOL.
We are here
Phase 2
Recovery / Early Bull
Price breaking key levels. Volume returning. Retail beginning to take notice. Expected from 2027.
Phase 3
Euphoria
Everyone talking about crypto. New all-time highs. FOMO at its peak. Smart money distributing.
Phase 4 — Complete
Distribution
Cycle peaked at $126,272 on 6 Oct 2025. Fast bear followed. This phase is now complete.
Weekly Market Read — 7 July 2026
Updated by the founder
Still in the bear market. BTC hit $57,950. The Q4 2026 bottom thesis is active.
The cycle read is unchanged and that is deliberate. We are still in the bear market. The 2024–2025 cycle peaked at $126,272 on 6 October 2025. What followed was a fast distribution and markdown phase. In early July 2026, BTC hit $57,950 — a 652-day low. That is not a bottom signal. That is the market doing exactly what bear markets do.
The Q4 2026 bottom thesis remains active. The prediction has been consistent from Week 1 of this journal: the real cycle bottom is likely Q4 2026 — somewhere in the range of the low $50,000s. We are not there yet. Price has recovered to approximately $64,000 from the July low. That recovery does not change the bias. A bounce in a bear market is not a reversal.
What the cycle read justifies right now is systematic accumulation — not speculation, not leverage. DCA’ing into spot BTC and SOL every week. Building the position that will be held into the next cycle. The next halving is March/April 2028. The window between now and that event is historically where the best entries of the next cycle are found.
Patience is the position. The bear market is doing exactly what it should. When the Q4 bottom arrives — and the data confirms it — the cycle read will change. Until then: accumulate, hold conviction, and do not let a temporary bounce confuse your timeline.
2024–2026 Cycle — Full Timeline
The complete picture of what happened and where we are now.
Apr 2024
Bitcoin Halving — Block reward cut to 3.125 BTC
$64,968 at halving
Dec 2024
First all-time high of the cycle
$108,319 — 8 months post-halving
Jul 2025
Bitcoin breaks $120,000 for the first time
$123,000 — 15 months post-halving
6 Oct 2025
Cycle peak — all-time high confirmed
$126,272 — 17 months post-halving
Fast distribution and markdown followed. Bear market begins.
Late 2025
Bear market — distribution complete, markdown phase
Fast sell-off following the cycle peak. Retail exits. Institutions watch and wait.
May 2026
Founder’s Journal begins — DCA strategy active
BTC ~$80,000. BTC Short opened. DCA into BTC + SOL starts from Week 1.
BTC Short closed at +28.2% (Week 5)
Jul 2026
BTC hits $57,950 — 652-day low
Still in bear market. Recovering to ~$64K. Q4 2026 bottom thesis active. DCA’ing every week.
Current — Week 9 · Accumulation phase
Q4 2026
Predicted cycle bottom
Thesis: low $40,000–$50,000s as the cycle floor before recovery. Not confirmed — watching the data.
Prediction — not confirmed
Mar/Apr 2028
Next Bitcoin Halving
The next supply shock. The investors positioned before this event historically capture the next cycle.
Future — the next catalyst
♻
On-Chain
Long-Term Holder Behaviour
Accumulation — long-term holders adding to positions at cycle lows. Classic bear market accumulation signal.
😰
Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index
Fear. Post-peak sentiment deeply negative. BTC at 652-day lows. Historically a building zone, not a selling zone.
₿
Bitcoin
BTC Price
~$64,000. Down 49% from $126,272 cycle peak. Recovering from July low of $57,950. Bear market bias intact.
🏢
Macro
Global Liquidity
Watching. Global M2 expansion will be the key macro trigger for the next leg up. Not confirmed yet.
📅
Cycle
Next Halving
March/April 2028. The accumulation window is open now. Best entries historically come before the halving narrative builds.
📊
Current Action
Founder’s Position
No active futures trade. Sidelines since Week 5. DCA’ing BTC + SOL every week. Watching Q4 for bottom confirmation.
Post-halving timeline — where we are now
The cycle peaked 17 months post-halving at $126,272. We are now in the bear market with a predicted Q4 2026 bottom — still approximately 18 months before the next halving.
Apr 2024Halving $64K
Oct 2025Peak $126K
Q4 2026Predicted Bottom
2027Recovery
2028Next Halving
Historical cycle reference
Every cycle follows the same pattern. The magnitude decreases as the market matures — but the opportunity remains.
2013–2017 Cycle
Halving: July 2016
Price at halving: $651
$19,700
+2,972% from halving price
Peak: December 2017 — 17 months post-halving
2018–2021 Cycle
Halving: May 2020
Price at halving: $8,821
$69,400
+682% from halving price
Peak: November 2021 — 18 months post-halving
2022–2026 Cycle ← Current
Halving: April 2024
Price at halving: $64,968
$126,272
+94% from halving price — cycle peak confirmed
Peak: 6 Oct 2025. Now in bear market — Q4 2026 bottom predicted. Next halving: 2028.
The opportunity right now
The investors who build wealth across multiple cycles accumulate through the bear market — before anyone else is paying attention.
Every previous bear market has felt exactly like this — heavy, uncertain, and uninspiring. BTC down 49% from its peak. Sentiment in fear. Most people either sold or checked out. That is precisely what creates the opportunity. The next halving is March/April 2028. The investors who are DCA’ing now, building their position through the lows, are the ones who will be positioned before the next cycle. The education, the framework, and the live cycle intelligence to navigate this period are all available in the Academy — updated every week.
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This indicator reflects one active investor’s personal read on the market cycle based on available data and experience. Updated weekly. For educational purposes only — not financial advice. Past cycle behaviour does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer →
Ready to position for the next cycle?
The framework is in the modules. The live cycle read is updated every week. The accumulation window is open now.
